El Niño gutter prep for Irvine and South OC, before the first storm.

NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño this winter, likely the strongest since 1997-98. Its Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in place. Its October 8 update says El Niño is still strengthening, gives a greater than 83 percent chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January to March 2027, and gives an 83 percent chance that October to December becomes the strongest El Niño on record, beating every event since 1950.

The Tustin Irvine Ranch gauge recorded 36.08 inches in the 1997-98 season, about 2.6 times its normal year of 14.12 inches, according to NOAA station records. February 1998 alone brought 14.84 inches there, 14.12 inches in Laguna Beach and 12.22 inches at Newport Beach Harbor. NOAA gives this winter a real chance of being stronger.

Start with a full cleaning and a flush of every downspout, then fix what the water will find: leaking seams and end caps, sagging runs with the wrong slope, and long roof sections draining to a single downspout. Carry the water away from the foundation with extensions or underground drainage, and add BroGuard mesh so debris does not rebuild between storms.

In October or November, before the first big storm. The National Weather Service says El Niño storms are most likely December through March. A Solutionist walks the roofline, and the crew does the work the same day whenever possible, with a written report of what was cleaned, fixed and still recommended. Call (949) 994-4410 early.

Because roof water released onto a slope adds to ground that is already saturated. South County has seen what that does: in 1998 the Via Estoril slide in Laguna Niguel took down houses after December storms sped it up, and heavy rain in January and February 2005 most likely set the Bluebird Canyon slide in Laguna Beach moving that June, damaging or destroying 15 homes. Where your downspouts end matters as much as the gutter itself.

Yes, fast. Eucalyptus leaves, sycamore, jacaranda, palm litter and pine needles can refill an open gutter within weeks, and in a back-to-back storm pattern there is no dry window to get up and clean between systems. Stainless BroGuard micro-mesh keeps the trough clear all season, so the gutter you paid to clean in October still works in February.

NOAA’s October 8, 2026 update keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect and gives a greater than 83% chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January to March 2027. That raises the odds of a wet winter, but no forecast can promise how much rain any one neighborhood will get, so the smart move is to have the gutters ready either way.

About 11.18 inches at John Wayne Airport and 14.12 inches at the Tustin Irvine Ranch gauge, based on NOAA’s 1991-2020 normals. Roughly 87% of the airport’s yearly rain falls from November through March. In 1997-98 the Tustin Irvine Ranch gauge got 36.08 inches.

Now through early November, before the first big storm. The National Weather Service says El Niño storms are most likely between December and March, and our schedule fills up once the forecast turns.

On December 6, 1997 floods and mudslides hit Irvine, Costa Mesa, Lake Forest, San Juan Capistrano and Laguna Beach and closed Laguna Canyon Road and PCH in Newport Beach. On February 24, 1998 rain forced 550 people from their homes in Laguna Beach, and mud destroyed at least 14 homes and took at least one life. On March 1, 1998 a landslide on Paseo de Cristobal in San Clemente evacuated four homes and cut rail service.

Its advice includes “Clean storm drains, rain gutters, remove debris that can cause back-ups.” Your gutters are the first drain your roof water reaches, so cleaning them, flushing the downspouts and fixing leaks and sags before December covers the part of that list that sits on your house.

Yes, if they are the right kind. BroGuard stainless micro-mesh keeps leaves and roof grit out while heavy rain passes straight through, so the gutter is open when a storm peaks. Foam inserts and plastic screens can clog or warp.